There is no question that we need change in the
USA. But the question is what change. As a cynical
kind of question we might ask, does Obama really
intend to change things? Or will it be a Clinton
rehash set in the context of the present economic
crisis? We should also ask what kind of change
ought we to have? It's speculative of course,
perhaps utopian, but we ought to consider goals that
would really make a difference.
1. PROBLEMS OBAMA FACES
Obama's first priority, he says, is
to deal with the economic crisis and he is
trying to do something fast to end it. That is
admirable in itself. But maybe it should be
thought through a little more, taking a little
more time to consider the longer term
consequences of any actions, especially since
the price tag is astronomical.
The US is engaged in two direct wars and
more indirect wars. This is taking a toll on
lives, on prestige and on the economy. The
price tag is again astronomical.
The dangers of climate change have become
clear enough. Unfortunately nothing was done
about it for too long. We are now experiencing
the effects and it will get worse, a lot worse.
The US role in the world has been lambasted
during the Bush regime. US prestige evaporated.
The US empire endangers itself.
2. PROPOSED SOLUTIONS AND QUESTIONS
ABOUT THEM
Obama wants to deal with these problems and
find workable solutions. Will he be able to?
Let us start with his choices of advisors.
ADVISORS
New ethics standards ought to be for
everyone with no exceptions. In the meantime
some including Daschle have stepped down which
was the right thing to do. But it was probably a
mistake to keep Geithner. Is it true that there
were no alternatives to Geithner? The argument
that only Geithner understands the economic
complexity of the problems sounds absurd. The
argument that the stimulus plan must be put in
place quickly is questionable. Will it really
make a difference to the ultimate health of the
US economy whether the stimulus programs happen
this week or in four weeks? Perhaps the hurried
approach will even lead to bigger problems. So
rushing through Geithner's appointment may seem
prudent, but the question about his
qualifications remains. Does someone who did
not pay certain required social security and
medicare taxes really have the moral fiber
needed to watch over the IRS? William J. Lynn
III who lobbied for Raytheon is still under
consideration for deputy defense secretary. He
ought to withdraw.
Why are so many of the Obama advisors from
Harvard? All the Harvard people think pretty
much the same way. What if they are wrong? Where
are the people who will ask questions and offer
alternatives?
WAR AND ITS ASPECTS
The announcement that Guantanomo will be
closed is commendable. But when will it happen?
What will happen to the prisoners being held
there? Will the problems and objections become
so great that Gitmo doesn't get closed? Closing
Gitmo should mean closing it, no excuses, no
somedays. Those involved in terror actions
against the USA can be tried and placed in US
jails as many already have been.
No torture should mean no torture. Why are
exceptions for the CIA being proposed. Their
human rights record isn't good. There should be
no exceptions for the CIA.
Why is there waffling on getting the entire
military out of Iraq. Out is out. We can't solve
the economic crisis if we are pursuing two VERY
expensive wars. In the past, economic growth in
the USA has happened in peace time. The
beginning of a war may give a boost to a lagging
economy and provide jobs for a while, but in the
end it exhausts the economy. That is the
situation now. A comparison of extended periods
of economic growth in the USA in the past
century shows that they required peace and
reduced amounts of military spending.
Do we really believe that if no one has been
able to occupy Afghanistan successfully the past
couple thousand years that we can? Gates has
intelligently suggested that sending a massive
army to Afghanistan will not be able to solve
the problem. But it looks like the soldiers are
going. Why? The Obama administration now
declares that we will concentrate on the war in
Afghanistan, sending tens of thousands more
troops, trying to pressure other countries who
don't want to, to send troops - does this sound
familiar?
What reason could there be to continue the
recent strategy of killing Pakistani civilians
in order to kill one or two jihadis? Even if
this should slow down militant attacks in
Afghanistan, the hatred being engendered in
Pakistan toward the US interventions will not
disappear and attacks will burgeon up again
eventually. Maybe it will be a short term
solution but not a long term one. Does anyone
know what it will mean to continue to
destabilize Pakistan?
The Chicago School theory of creating a
clean slate through destabilization of a country,
slaughter and then putting in US puppet
governements employing privatization,
deregulation and free trade capitalism may have
led to some short term upswings in GPD in some
countries, but as South America which is the
prime example of practicing this theory
indicates, it has become a continent with a
basic distrust of the USA, attempting to
liberate itself from dependence on the USA and
willing to sabbatage US interests when possible.
The Neos thought they could cleanse South
America of socialist and communist influences
and turn it into a placid dependency. It didn't
work. They thought they could do the same with
the Middle East where communist and socialist
influences were eventually replaced by Islamists.
The chances of that working are minimal, but
this time, it could spell the permanent economic
decline of the USA.
CHINA
Attacking China for currency manipulation by
the Obama administration after a few days in
office is crazy. Do they wish to create enmity
with China? Will that really be helpful in the
present economic situation? China decoupled the
renminbi from the dollar in 2005 and since then
its value has increase by over 20%. It has
chosen to take a slow and careful path in
revaluing its currency because it believes that
will prevent currency dislocations, runs on
currencies, and economic disruption. The
present economic disaster was not caused by the
gradual increase in the value of the renminbi,
nor by the fact that its rise has been slow, and
it would probably be a hundred times worse if
the renminbi were forced to increase rapidly in
value.
What if China begins to sell out its US
treasuries? What if it has to sell it's US
treasuries in order to try to save its own
economy? Do we really want to rock the boat on
this before we've really figured out what will
happen if they do? Actually we know what will
happen if there is a massive sell-off of
treasuries. The USA will either go bankrupt or
US inflation will resemble Zimbabwe's.
ISRAEL/PALESTINE
The Obama government's interpretation of
what is going on in Israel/Palestine is in the
hands of AIPAC. With that unbalanced, one-sided
view, the problem will not be solved. Can
George Mitchell do better? It will be difficult
if he won't talk to Hamas. Hamas was
democratically elected by the Palestinian
people. Oddly this fact is always left out by
the press in the USA. Branding Hamas as
terrorist and then ignoring them is not going to
solve any problems. The massive financial and
especially military subsidies paid for by US
taxpayers to Israel will allow the war to go on
endlessly. Israel, despite the constant
jabbering of the press is not a democracy, it is
an ethnocracy or a theocracy, thus in essence
not much different than Saudi Arabia. Of course,
the USA has not been known to have problems
supporting all sorts of non-democratic
governments. Talks should include Hamas, and
military subsidies to Israel must stop
completely.
IRAN
Threatening Iran and allowing talk of
overthrowing its government, even if Obama
offers diplomacy, is a policy which will surely
backfire. The US and the world should stop the
sanctions now. That will allow Iran to
liberalize, begin rejuvenating its economy and
eventually perhaps become the local power center.
With it's Islamic fundamentalist qualifications
along with it's very real potential to
liberalize it could be a very positive influence
in the area. Before the US intervention through
sanctions and secret CIA interference in the
country, Iran was liberalizing and growing
economically. For the US, egged on by Israeli
lobbyists, an improved economy in Iran seemed
threatening and had to be destroyed. Yet, by
all logic, a better living standard for the
people and greater political and social
possibilities always tend to reduce extremism,
and that is what was happening before the
sanctions. Allowing liberalizing Iranian
influence to spread from Iran to Afghanistan and
elsewhere might be the best way to help
Afghanistan. After 9/11 Iranians were
interested in investing in Afghanistan and
probably could have given that country an
economic boost if the USA hadn't intervened and
blocked Iranian ambitions.
US LEADERSHIP
The notion of US leadership in the world is
understood by the US government (Obama does not
differ from preceding governments) to mean that
the USA tells everyone else what to do. It is
apparently self-evident that what the USA thinks
about any particular conflict is correct and the
other side is wrong. There is little give and
take. But some countries are tired of this,
China for example which for the most part simply
ignores the US blustering and like Russia is
beginning to offer the same "medicine" to the
USA. Obviously all this US advice and pressure
on others to follow it, is given not because it
is good for the countries in question, but
rather stems from perceived US interests. But
hey, the US just created the worst economic
debacle of the last half century. Why would
anyone really want to listen? And what would
justify it if they do?
CLIMATE CHANGE
Can and will Obama be able to do anything to
reverse the negative effects of climate change
and build a new sustainable economy with a
renewable local energy infrastructure. The
answer is still out on that one, but the
recently passed stimulus bill does not look
good. Infrastructure requires capital that we
don't have. And there is no indication just now
where that capital can come from.
WAGES AND STANDARD OF LIVING
Some people recognize that the downward
pressure on pay and thus on income levels for
the lower half of the US population over the
past half century is at the core of the present
problem. But do the Obama advisors understand
that? They tend to think top down. I doubt
they've rejected their Milton Friedman even if
they suddenly are more amenable to Keynes.
In order to keep up their living standard,
most people in the USA have had to increase
their debt, and borrowing was readily available
without restrictions. Now, the Obama government
wants to make it easier for people to continue
on this path. There you go. I guess we are
supposed to ignore the core of the problem, and
instead increase the misplaced policies that led
to the collapse in the first place. Making it
easier to increase debt is not going to work,
unless maybe everyone with personal debt is
allowed to go bankrupt with no repercussions.
Will that happen? You can bet it won't.
The other solution to maintain living
standards while reducing income which was
carried out over the last thirty years, was to
encourage corporations to provide cheap imports
from China and elsewhere. Between encouraging
massive debt and providing cheap foreign made
products, Americans more or less could keep up
the appearance of an increasing living standard
- until now.
ECONOMIC DISASTER
It is not 100% certain Keynsianism got us
out of the Depression in the 1930's. But it did
create an excellent infrastructure, so that is
good. But can Obama do that adequately if most
of the money goes to financial bailouts, auto
bailouts, and war? It looks like a relatively
small percentage of the new bailout package is
going to infrastructure, and a much larger
percent goes to tax cuts and stimulus checks
which recent experience shows do not help.
There is an economic presupposition that
money must be borrowed in order to make an
economy grow. The notion has been carried to
such an extreme over the last few decades, that
the deleveraging which is now occurring will
likely keep the economy contracting and then
stagnating for years. Massive indebtedness
wasn't always considered the way to go. At one
time people saved first in order to create the
capital to invest. Of course, that's not how
capitalism began. It was much more sinister
than through debt or saving. Capitalism was
able to impose itself on the world because
entrepreneurs went around the world robbing
cultures of their gold and other assets in order
to obtain the capital they needed to invest. So
capital grows through robbery, saving, debt and
the creation of money by the government. The
latter, however, most often leads to inflation
which in the end reduces capital. Yes, we do
need capital now to stop the decline of
economies. But maybe there are other ways to
increase to create what we need to be a
sustainable and equitable society.
STIMULUS
The economic practices of the past thirty
years are not working any more and there are no
new suggestions of how to solve this, except
basically more of the same with a larger touch
of Keynsianism. So, much of what is being done
could make it worse.
F.ex. bailouts will allow banks and
corporations to keep producing debt and unions
will not be able to raise wages, forcing China
to raise the value of its currency rapidly means
cheap products will be less available and people
won't be able to afford necessities.
TAX CUTS
Why are the Bush tax cuts for the rich not
being reversed now when the government needs the
money? You can be sure it's not those folks who
are going to create the jobs. True, they may
put some of the money they don't pay in taxes
into the stock market, slowing the decline and
potentially creating another bubble that will
burst soon enough. Instead the government should
be giving support only to start ups and growing
small businesses that will create jobs and cut
all subsidies to big corporations and
agribusiness who will continue to cut jobs even
if they get tax cuts.
REGULATION
Obama talks of the need to regulate
financial markets. This is self-evident. But
will one of the authors of deregulation Larry
Summers who is head of the White House's
National Economic Council really be willing and
able to create regulations that will prevent the
recurrance of a new financial disaster? He
belongs to the Harvard crowd, the same group
that participated in the Bill Clinton government
when much of the deregulation occurred that has
now laid waste to our economy.
HEALTH CARE
One of the most persistent problems both
economically and personally in the US is the
question of health care. Obama has said he
wants to take it on. But so far there aren't
any cogent solutions. Health insurance
companies will not allow themselves to be put
out of business, so there is virtually no hope
of getting single payer national health care
which is the most economical, practical, and
complete way of coverage with the most
successful health outcomes.
3. ALTERNATIVES
There are different overarching ways of
viewing the economy. It can be a complex array
of economic subjects all striving to make money.
Interesting in that picture are the
entrepreneurs who create the economic forces.
The starting point is the availability and use
of capital in order to create businesses.
Workers are merely one element of cost and all
costs must be reduced as much as possible.
There may be conflicts between entrepreneurs but
because all have the same goal it will end up
harmonious, as if there were an invisible hand
guiding it all. It's Adam Smith's pure
capitalism. Some, however, don't think the
invisible hand works perfectly, therefore there
should be some government regulation preventing
the entrepreneurs from unbalancing the system.
All manipulation of the system must be done by
regulating how capital is created and
distributed.
Then there is the view from the side of the
producers of goods and services. In this view
working people are the ones that create the
goods and services. Entrepreneurs provide
capital, but don't create value. Instead they
enrich themselves by appropriating most of the
value of the goods and services created by the
workers. The system is manipulated by allowing
capital to be shunted away from the workers and
into the hands of capitalists by keeping wages
as low as possible .
If the system goes out of control, the
solutions will be very different depending on
how the system is conceived. In the first case,
all interventions will consist of ways to
manipulate capital. In the second case, workers
are the center point and their share of the
value of production might be increased or
decreased. If it is decreased too much they
might rebell.
What must be done is to start shifting the
wealth of the nation from those at the top who
have been stealing it for a long time, to the
hands of those who create it, the workers, both
white and blue collar. (There are many people
working in financial services who are providing
real services to people, many of them are being
paid very low wages. However, the finance
manipulators whose only goal is to think of new
ways to expropriate money from people and put it
in their own pockets are not creating wealth for
the country even if their manipulations are
added to GDP. It's illusory GDP and it's
harmful.)
How about ending all subsidies to
corporations, private companies and agribusiness
of a certain size. How about making
corporations pay for the infrastructure they use,
no exceptions. What if all companies were
organized like the Canadian royalty trusts in
which all excess cash goes to shareholders after
costs and possible expansion. What if
shareholders would include all workers in the
corporations as well as every US citizen, not
just the rich. What if private companies after
reaching a certain size would have to include
stakeholders as shareholders.
Attempting to escape rules for inclusion of
stakeholders as shareholders by privatizing
companies would be impossible. While trusts
made of up stakeholder/shareholders would not be
taxed, private companies beyond a certain size
would be taxed at 90%. Moving company
headquarters out of the country to avoid taxes
would simply be forbidden. Any company doing
this would be penalized by having to pay import
tariffs to sell their products in the USA. Any
company whose headquarters are in another
country and don't pay US taxes is a foreign
company. That would be the end of free trade of
course. Can the supporters of free trade prove
that it will be beneficial under present
economic circumstances? Can they even show that
it was beneficial for most Americans before the
economic crisis?
Perhaps there are other ways than tariffs
to encourage production in the USA. Perhaps
there could be tax breaks for individuals who
buy US produced goods which would be large
enough to make US producers competitive. This
would not be an import tarif and thus should not
cause tariff retaliation.
It is not completely specious to consider
developing a system of barter as a way to
distribute goods and services in the USA. With
computers and internet this could be
accomplished.
How about putting caps on what percentage of
a corporation's stock any individual can own.
Everything above that should be expropriated and
distributed to EVERYONE in the USA. That would
be not much more difficult than sending stimulus
checks to everyone and could be done instead of
the stimulus checks.
Any earnings including stock options over
$1,000,000 should be taxed at 90%. No one needs
more than that. Almost anyone getting that much
is getting it because money is being diverted
from others who have worked for it somewhere
along the line. This should end CEO pay
excesses. In the 1950's when the highest tax
bracket was 90% (yes, it was whether you believe
it or not) the US economy was growing rapidly,
job creation was expanding, the middle class was
growing at its fastest rate ever and more and
more people were able to increase their standard
of living. That's what we need now with growth
happening in sustainable, environmentally safe
businesses and increases in living standard
being defined as an improved quality of life.